Meksika 1-1 Ekvador — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 15 Oct 2025

Meksika
1-1 HT 1-1
Ekvador
📅15/10/2025 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Friendlies – 2025

Meksika vs Ekvador Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.77
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
19%
4.35
6+ Goals
8%
21.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.33
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.35
X/1
16%
5.02
X/2
11%
6.33
X/X
6%
4.14
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
17%
4.77
2/X EV+ ✗
13%
13.85
Value flag · 2/X at 13.85 — our 13% vs market 4.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.0pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.2pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+5.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.6pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Meksika v Ekvador — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Meksika EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Ekvador EU Bookmakers 34%
+4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
0.91/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.09
+3% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +40%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
402 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 78%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
12.5 Crosses 14.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9

Meksika vs Ekvador Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Meksika
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Ekvador
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.76 xG 0.73
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
307 Passes 245
76% Pass Accuracy 73%
23 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.07.2024 Meksika Meksika 0-0 HT 0-0 Ekvador Ekvador AKU
06.06.2022 Meksika Meksika 0-0 HT 0-0 Ekvador Ekvador HAZ
10.06.2019 Meksika Meksika 3-2 HT 1-0 Ekvador Ekvador HAZ
20.06.2015 Meksika Meksika 1-2 HT 0-1 Ekvador Ekvador AKU
29.03.2015 Ekvador Ekvador 0-1 HT 0-1 Meksika Meksika HAZ
31.05.2014 Meksika Meksika 3-1 HT 1-0 Ekvador Ekvador HAZ

Meksika 1-1 Ekvador — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Meksika
1-1
AWAY Ekvador
1.34 xG 1.07
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
358 Passes 296
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 12
10 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Meksika vs Ekvador
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Meksika and Ekvador shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 35% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Meksika had 54% of the ball to Ekvador's 46%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.34 to 1.07.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Meksika had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Meksika and 0.83 for Ekvador.

What was the final score of Meksika vs Ekvador?

Meksika 1-1 Ekvador in the Friendlies on 15/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Meksika vs Ekvador?

Before kick-off our model rated a Meksika win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Meksika 38%, draw 26%, Ekvador 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Meksika), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Meksika) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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