Caldiero Terme 2-2 Lumezzane — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 15 Nov 2024

📅15/11/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.57
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
34%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.6
Over 2.5
38%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.9
No
59%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.56
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
17%
4.73
6+ Goals
6%
26.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.56 — our 35% vs market 33.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
35%
+1.3pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.4pp
34%
Away Win
34%
-0.9pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+3.2pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-3.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-8.0pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caldiero Terme EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Lumezzane EU Bookmakers 38%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.48/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/0.88
+28% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +25%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
320 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caldiero Terme
2-2
AWAY Lumezzane
45% Ball Possession 55%
18 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Caldiero Terme vs Lumezzane
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caldiero Terme and Lumezzane couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (36% / 30% / 34%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Caldiero Terme had 45% of the ball to Lumezzane's 55%, shots finished 18-14.

What was the final score of Caldiero Terme vs Lumezzane?

Caldiero Terme 2-2 Lumezzane in the Italy - Serie C on 15/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caldiero Terme vs Lumezzane?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caldiero Terme win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Caldiero Terme 36%, draw 30%, Lumezzane 34%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Caldiero Terme) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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