Olimpia Grudziadz 1-3 Zaglebie Sosnowiec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 2nd Division, 15 Nov 2024

📅15/11/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.08
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.88
6+ Goals
11%
17.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 31% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
43%
-1.9pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.2pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.1pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Olimpia Grudziadz EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Zaglebie Sosnowiec EU Bookmakers 33%
-18% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.06/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/0.76
-32% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +91%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
323 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Olimpia Grudziadz
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 32
2 Shots on Target 12
4 Corners 12
2 Yellow Cards 0
21.07.2024 Zaglebie Sosnowiec Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2-1 HT 1-1 Olimpia Grudziadz Olimpia Grudziadz POL2
23.11.2019 Olimpia Grudziadz Olimpia Grudziadz 2-1 HT 0-0 Zaglebie Sosnowiec Zaglebie Sosnowiec POL1
27.09.2018 Olimpia Grudziadz Olimpia Grudziadz 0-0 HT 0-0 Zaglebie Sosnowiec Zaglebie Sosnowiec POLK
25.09.2015 Zaglebie Sosnowiec Zaglebie Sosnowiec 0-0 HT 0-0 Olimpia Grudziadz Olimpia Grudziadz POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Olimpia Grudziadz
1-3
AWAY Zaglebie Sosnowiec
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Olimpia Grudziadz vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zaglebie Sosnowiec saw off Olimpia Grudziadz 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Olimpia Grudziadz at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Olimpia Grudziadz had 53% of the ball to Zaglebie Sosnowiec's 47%, shots finished 15-7.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Olimpia Grudziadz and 0.75 for Zaglebie Sosnowiec.

What was the final score of Olimpia Grudziadz vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec?

Olimpia Grudziadz 1-3 Zaglebie Sosnowiec in the Poland - 2nd Division on 15/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Olimpia Grudziadz vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Olimpia Grudziadz win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Olimpia Grudziadz 41%, draw 27%, Zaglebie Sosnowiec 31%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Olimpia Grudziadz) ✗ Under 2.5
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