Norwich City 1-2 Burnley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 15 Dec 2024

📅15/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.57
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
34%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.6
Over 2.5
45%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.48
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
4.46
6+ Goals
8%
23.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.13
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1 EV+ ✗
19%
5.56
X/2
10%
5.33
X/X
12%
3.91
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
18%
3.9
2/X
7%
13.7
Value flag · X/1 at 5.56 — our 19% vs market 13.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
35%
+5.1pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.6pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-1.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.7pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Norwich City EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Burnley EU Bookmakers 39%
-5% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +18%
1.14/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.02
-2% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +63%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
298 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 76%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
16.5 Crosses 14.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Norwich City
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Burnley
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.79 xG 1.52
46% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
264 Passes 355
72% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 3
04.02.2023 Norwich City Norwich City 0-3 HT 0-1 Burnley Burnley İNCL
25.10.2022 Burnley Burnley 1-0 HT 0-0 Norwich City Norwich City İNCL
10.04.2022 Norwich City Norwich City 2-0 HT 1-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
02.10.2021 Burnley Burnley 0-0 HT 0-0 Norwich City Norwich City İNP
18.07.2020 Norwich City Norwich City 0-2 HT 0-1 Burnley Burnley İNP
25.01.2020 Burnley Burnley 1-2 HT 0-0 Norwich City Norwich City FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Norwich City
1-2
AWAY Burnley
1.07 xG 0.47
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
417 Passes 296
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Norwich City vs Burnley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burnley edged past Norwich City 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 34% — and on the day Burnley made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Norwich City had 57% of the ball to Burnley's 43%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.07 to 0.47 — the balance of chances actually favoured Norwich City.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burnley led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Norwich City and 1.17 for Burnley.

What was the final score of Norwich City vs Burnley?

Norwich City 1-2 Burnley in the England - Championship on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Norwich City vs Burnley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Norwich City win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Norwich City 40%, draw 26%, Burnley 34%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Norwich City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNCL More England - Championship
15 Dec 2024
17:00 Watford vs West Bromwich Analysis →