Heartland 1-1 Bendel Insurance — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nigeria NPFL, 15 Dec 2024

📅15/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.76
Draw
37%
3.04
Away
20%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
Over 2.5
33%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.75
No
63%
1.39
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
22%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
53%
-9.4pp
36%
Draw
29%
+7.0pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+2.4pp
37%
BTTS Yes
32%
+4.3pp
63%
BTTS No
68%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heartland EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Bendel Insurance EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -33% / -33%
1.40/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/2.08
-4% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -41%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
254 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heartland
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Bendel Insurance
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 2
27.04.2024 Bendel Insurance Bendel Insurance 1-0 HT 0-0 Heartland Heartland NIJ
06.12.2023 Heartland Heartland 1-0 HT 0-0 Bendel Insurance Bendel Insurance NIJ
POST-MATCH Heartland vs Bendel Insurance
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heartland and Bendel Insurance shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Heartland at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (67%) landed while no to both teams scoring (63%) missed.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Heartland and 0.50 for Bendel Insurance.

What was the final score of Heartland vs Bendel Insurance?

Heartland 1-1 Bendel Insurance in the Nigeria NPFL on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heartland vs Bendel Insurance?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heartland win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Heartland 43%, draw 36%, Bendel Insurance 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Heartland), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Heartland) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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