Athletic Bilbao 2-0 Deportivo Alaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 16 Jan 2024

📅16/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.61
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
28%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.75
Over 2.5
48%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.95
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.9
6+ Goals
9%
17.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.06
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
11%
16.35
X/1
12%
3.63
X/2
7%
10.45
X/X
11%
4.86
2/1
8%
25.0
2/2
14%
8.87
2/X
6%
17.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
58%
-14.0pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.5pp
28%
Away Win
18%
+10.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
53%
-1.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
47%
+1.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.9pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Alaves EU Bookmakers 21%
+2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.86/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.57/2.44
-40% / +52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -54% / -42%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
343 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 75%
31.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
34.0 Crosses 17.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Athletic Bilbao
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Deportivo Alaves
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.38 xG 0.75
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
334 Passes 260
77% Pass Accuracy 71%
24 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.09.2023 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 0-2 HT 0-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
09.01.2022 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 0-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
01.10.2021 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
10.04.2021 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
04.10.2020 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
23.02.2020 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 2-1 HT 1-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Bilbao
2-0
AWAY Deportivo Alaves
1.64 xG 0.66
64% Ball Possession 36%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
0 Corners 2
524 Passes 250
85% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 15
11 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao saw off Deportivo Alaves 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Athletic Bilbao as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 64% of the ball to Deportivo Alaves's 36%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.64 to 0.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 0.50 for Deportivo Alaves.

What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves?

Athletic Bilbao 2-0 Deportivo Alaves in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 16/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves?

Before kick-off our model rated a Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 44%, draw 28%, Deportivo Alaves 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Athletic Bilbao), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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