Dungannon Swifts 1-2 Linfield FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - League Cup, 16 Jan 2024

📅16/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
5.09
Draw
27%
4.08
Away
46%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.21
Over 2.5
49%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.1
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
2.98
6+ Goals
10%
9.29
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
9.04
1/2
9%
21.3
1/X
7%
17.2
X/1
9%
11.9
X/2
14%
3.72
X/X
9%
6.15
2/1
8%
34.0
2/2
24%
1.85
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
16.6
Value flag · 2/X at 16.6 — our 11% vs market 3.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
17%
+9.9pp
27%
Draw
22%
+5.4pp
46%
Away Win
62%
-15.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.6pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dungannon Swifts EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Linfield FC EU Bookmakers 66%
-24% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
0.00/4.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.99/1.44
-100% / -52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -10%
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
290 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dungannon Swifts
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Linfield FC
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 3.67
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 1
09.12.2023 Linfield FC Linfield FC 4-3 HT 1-3 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts KİRL
12.08.2023 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts 2-3 HT 1-1 Linfield FC Linfield FC KİRL
24.03.2023 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts 0-5 HT 0-2 Linfield FC Linfield FC KİRL
17.12.2022 Linfield FC Linfield FC 4-0 HT 2-0 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts KİRL
01.10.2022 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts 0-1 HT 0-1 Linfield FC Linfield FC KİRL
19.03.2022 Linfield FC Linfield FC 5-0 HT 3-0 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts KİRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dungannon Swifts
1-2
AWAY Linfield FC
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Dungannon Swifts vs Linfield FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Linfield FC edged past Dungannon Swifts 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Linfield FC as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Dungannon Swifts had 55% of the ball to Linfield FC's 45%, shots finished 13-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Linfield FC led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Dungannon Swifts and 3.67 for Linfield FC.

What was the final score of Dungannon Swifts vs Linfield FC?

Dungannon Swifts 1-2 Linfield FC in the North Ireland - League Cup on 16/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dungannon Swifts vs Linfield FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Linfield FC win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Dungannon Swifts 27%, draw 27%, Linfield FC 46%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Linfield FC) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Linfield FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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