Hertha Berlin 3-2 Magdeburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 16 Feb 2024

📅16/02/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.25
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
33%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.33
Over 2.5
53%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.46
No
47%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.92
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
25%
2.74
6+ Goals
11%
7.24
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.14
1/2
8%
26.0
1/X
7%
12.15
X/1
16%
5.48
X/2
10%
6.22
X/X
7%
5.46
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.3
2/2
15%
3.75
2/X
10%
12.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.3 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
40%
+2.5pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.7pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-0.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
39%
+7.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
61%
-7.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
64%
-11.3pp
47%
BTTS No
36%
+11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hertha Berlin EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Magdeburg EU Bookmakers 38%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.45/1.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.75
+90% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +0%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
302 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 78%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.2
15.0 Crosses 12.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hertha Berlin
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Magdeburg
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 6.00
2.38 xG 3.85
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 24
7 Shots on Target 12
3 Corners 4
286 Passes 405
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
23 Box Touches 39
12 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.09.2023 Magdeburg Magdeburg 6-4 HT 2-3 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hertha Berlin
3-2
AWAY Magdeburg
3.20 xG 1.60
40% Ball Possession 60%
21 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 4
288 Passes 507
80% Pass Accuracy 89%
34 Box Touches 26
28 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Hertha Berlin vs Magdeburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hertha Berlin nicked a narrow win over Magdeburg 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Hertha Berlin as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Hertha Berlin had 40% of the ball to Magdeburg's 60%, shots finished 21-12, expected goals 3.20 to 1.60 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Hertha Berlin's control.

What was the final score of Hertha Berlin vs Magdeburg?

Hertha Berlin 3-2 Magdeburg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 16/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hertha Berlin vs Magdeburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hertha Berlin win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Hertha Berlin 43%, draw 24%, Magdeburg 33%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hertha Berlin), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hertha Berlin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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