Varnsdorf 1-4 Usti Nad Labem — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 16 Feb 2024

📅16/02/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.11
Draw
21%
7.78
Away
31%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
Over 2.5
61%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
No
41%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
5%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
85%
-37.4pp
21%
Draw
10%
+11.4pp
31%
Away Win
5%
+26.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Varnsdorf EU Bookmakers 90%
Head to Head
AWAY Usti Nad Labem EU Bookmakers 8%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -56%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
488 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Varnsdorf
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Usti Nad Labem
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
10.04.2022 Varnsdorf Varnsdorf 3-0 HT 0-0 Usti Nad Labem Usti Nad Labem ÇEK2
17.09.2021 Usti Nad Labem Usti Nad Labem 2-0 HT 1-0 Varnsdorf Varnsdorf ÇEK2
30.05.2021 Varnsdorf Varnsdorf 0-1 HT 0-0 Usti Nad Labem Usti Nad Labem ÇEK2
21.08.2020 Usti Nad Labem Usti Nad Labem 0-0 HT 0-0 Varnsdorf Varnsdorf ÇEK2
06.06.2020 Usti Nad Labem Usti Nad Labem 2-3 HT 1-1 Varnsdorf Varnsdorf ÇEK2
01.09.2019 Varnsdorf Varnsdorf 0-3 HT 0-2 Usti Nad Labem Usti Nad Labem ÇEK2
POST-MATCH Varnsdorf vs Usti Nad Labem
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Usti Nad Labem swept aside Varnsdorf 4-1 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Varnsdorf at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Usti Nad Labem led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Varnsdorf and 1.33 for Usti Nad Labem.

What was the final score of Varnsdorf vs Usti Nad Labem?

Varnsdorf 1-4 Usti Nad Labem in the Friendlies on 16/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Varnsdorf vs Usti Nad Labem?

Before kick-off our model rated a Varnsdorf win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Varnsdorf 48%, draw 21%, Usti Nad Labem 31%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Varnsdorf) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Varnsdorf) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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