Al Akhdoud 3-2 Al Ahli Jeddah — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 16 Feb 2024

📅16/02/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.71
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
56%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.42
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.4
6+ Goals
11%
12.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 25% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
17%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
33%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
18%
+4.2pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.1pp
56%
Away Win
58%
-2.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.4pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Akhdoud EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ahli Jeddah EU Bookmakers 62%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -15%
0.45/1.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.22/1.34
-47% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +55% / -36%
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
218 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 434 · 83%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.6
14.0 Crosses 18.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Akhdoud
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Al Ahli Jeddah
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.18 xG 0.78
33% Ball Possession 67%
6 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 3
190 Passes 484
70% Pass Accuracy 87%
5 Box Touches 38
5 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 0
24.08.2023 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah 1-0 HT 0-0 Al Akhdoud Al Akhdoud SUUD
02.02.2023 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah 1-4 HT 1-1 Al Akhdoud Al Akhdoud SUUD1
30.08.2022 Al Akhdoud Al Akhdoud 2-0 HT 1-0 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah SUUD1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Akhdoud
3-2
AWAY Al Ahli Jeddah
0.70 xG 2.03
29% Ball Possession 71%
5 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
144 Passes 440
65% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 36
12 Crosses 33
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Al Akhdoud vs Al Ahli Jeddah
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Akhdoud squeezed past Al Ahli Jeddah 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Al Ahli Jeddah at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Al Akhdoud had 29% of the ball to Al Ahli Jeddah's 71%, shots finished 5-14, expected goals 0.70 to 2.03 — the balance of chances actually favoured Al Ahli Jeddah.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Al Akhdoud had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Al Akhdoud and 0.67 for Al Ahli Jeddah.

What was the final score of Al Akhdoud vs Al Ahli Jeddah?

Al Akhdoud 3-2 Al Ahli Jeddah in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 16/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Akhdoud vs Al Ahli Jeddah?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Ahli Jeddah win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Al Akhdoud 22%, draw 21%, Al Ahli Jeddah 56%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Al Ahli Jeddah) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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