Al Akhdoud vs Al Ahli Jeddah Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Al Akhdoud v Al Ahli Jeddah — Team-Based Signals
Al Akhdoud vs Al Ahli Jeddah Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Al Akhdoud
SUUD
1-4
HT 1-1
Al Akhdoud
SUUD1
2-0
HT 1-0
Al Ahli Jeddah
SUUD1
Al Akhdoud 3-2 Al Ahli Jeddah — Actual Match Statistics
Al Akhdoud squeezed past Al Ahli Jeddah 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Al Ahli Jeddah at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
On the day, Al Akhdoud had 29% of the ball to Al Ahli Jeddah's 71%, shots finished 5-14, expected goals 0.70 to 2.03 — the balance of chances actually favoured Al Ahli Jeddah.
Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Al Akhdoud had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Al Akhdoud and 0.67 for Al Ahli Jeddah.
What was the final score of Al Akhdoud vs Al Ahli Jeddah?
Al Akhdoud 3-2 Al Ahli Jeddah in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 16/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Al Akhdoud vs Al Ahli Jeddah?
Before kick-off our model rated an Al Ahli Jeddah win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Al Akhdoud 22%, draw 21%, Al Ahli Jeddah 56%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.