Neftçi PFK 0-1 Karabağ — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 16 Feb 2025

📅16/02/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 0-4
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
4.71
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
55%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
23%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
24%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
18%
+3.6pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.4pp
55%
Away Win
60%
-5.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.5pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Karabağ EU Bookmakers 64%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +5%
0.64/2.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.28/0.63
-42% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +18%
45% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
248 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 417 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neftçi PFK
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Karabağ
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
01.12.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 0-3 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
20.09.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 4-0 HT 3-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
24.04.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 4-1 HT 1-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERK
02.04.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 0-4 HT 0-3 Karabağ Karabağ AZERK
03.03.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-4 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
18.12.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 2-0 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
POST-MATCH Neftçi PFK vs Karabağ
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ edged past Neftçi PFK 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Neftçi PFK and 3.50 for Karabağ.

What was the final score of Neftçi PFK vs Karabağ?

Neftçi PFK 0-1 Karabağ in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neftçi PFK vs Karabağ?

Before kick-off our model rated an Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Neftçi PFK 22%, draw 24%, Karabağ 55%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
16 Feb 2025
15:00 Turan Tovuz vs Araz Nahçıvan Analysis →