Karvina 2-1 Ceske Budejovice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Czech Republic - Czech Liga, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.59
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.34
6+ Goals
11%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.59 — our 24% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
8%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-1.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.3pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karvina EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceske Budejovice EU Bookmakers 33%
-4% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -4%
1.37/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.76
-7% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -24%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
273 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 76%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.0 Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karvina
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Ceske Budejovice
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.10.2023 Ceske Budejovice Ceske Budejovice 1-0 HT 0-0 Karvina Karvina ÇEK
27.02.2022 Karvina Karvina 2-2 HT 1-0 Ceske Budejovice Ceske Budejovice ÇEK
25.09.2021 Ceske Budejovice Ceske Budejovice 3-1 HT 2-1 Karvina Karvina ÇEK
17.04.2021 Karvina Karvina 3-0 HT 2-0 Ceske Budejovice Ceske Budejovice ÇEK
12.12.2020 Ceske Budejovice Ceske Budejovice 1-1 HT 0-1 Karvina Karvina ÇEK
07.06.2020 Karvina Karvina 0-0 HT 0-0 Ceske Budejovice Ceske Budejovice ÇEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Karvina
2-1
AWAY Ceske Budejovice
1.71 xG 0.97
54% Ball Possession 46%
20 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
241 Passes 216
69% Pass Accuracy 70%
24 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 9
6 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Karvina vs Ceske Budejovice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karvina edged past Ceske Budejovice 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Karvina as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Karvina had 54% of the ball to Ceske Budejovice's 46%, shots finished 20-11, expected goals 1.71 to 0.97.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ceske Budejovice led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Karvina and 1.17 for Ceske Budejovice.

What was the final score of Karvina vs Ceske Budejovice?

Karvina 2-1 Ceske Budejovice in the Czech Republic - Czech Liga on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karvina vs Ceske Budejovice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karvina win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Karvina 43%, draw 27%, Ceske Budejovice 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karvina), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Karvina) ✓ BTTS Yes
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