Mlada Boleslav 2-1 Sigma Olomouc — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Czech Republic - Czech Liga, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.07
Over 2.5
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.91
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.16
6+ Goals
10%
10.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.91 — our 28% vs market 20.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-6.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+5.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-10.4pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mlada Boleslav EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sigma Olomouc EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -9%
1.05/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.76
+35% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
357 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 79%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
17.0 Crosses 26.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mlada Boleslav
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sigma Olomouc
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.10.2023 Sigma Olomouc Sigma Olomouc 4-0 HT 1-0 Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav ÇEK
18.03.2023 Sigma Olomouc Sigma Olomouc 2-0 HT 1-0 Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav ÇEK
01.10.2022 Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav 1-1 HT 1-0 Sigma Olomouc Sigma Olomouc ÇEK
13.05.2022 Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav 2-2 HT 1-1 Sigma Olomouc Sigma Olomouc ÇEK
06.05.2022 Sigma Olomouc Sigma Olomouc 1-2 HT 0-1 Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav ÇEK
13.02.2022 Sigma Olomouc Sigma Olomouc 2-1 HT 0-0 Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav ÇEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mlada Boleslav
2-1
AWAY Sigma Olomouc
3.94 xG 1.34
54% Ball Possession 46%
23 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
301 Passes 218
75% Pass Accuracy 65%
31 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mlada Boleslav nicked a narrow win over Sigma Olomouc 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Mlada Boleslav as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Mlada Boleslav had 54% of the ball to Sigma Olomouc's 46%, shots finished 23-6, expected goals 3.94 to 1.34 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Mlada Boleslav's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sigma Olomouc led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Mlada Boleslav and 2.00 for Sigma Olomouc.

What was the final score of Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?

Mlada Boleslav 2-1 Sigma Olomouc in the Czech Republic - Czech Liga on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mlada Boleslav win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Mlada Boleslav 43%, draw 26%, Sigma Olomouc 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mlada Boleslav) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mlada Boleslav) ✗ BTTS No
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