Aarau 2-0 Baden — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 16 Mar 2024

Aarau
2-0 HT 0-0
Baden
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.8
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
22%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.29
Over 2.5
54%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.55
No
49%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.69
2-3 Goals
36%
1.91
4-5 Goals
26%
2.85
6+ Goals
13%
7.94
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
52%
-1.8pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.0pp
22%
Away Win
24%
-2.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
40%
+5.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
60%
-5.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.0pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aarau EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Baden EU Bookmakers 28%
-5% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+0% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
376 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 77%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.1 Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aarau
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Baden
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.46 xG 0.68
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
308 Passes 268
75% Pass Accuracy 73%
32 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
30.01.2024 Baden Baden 1-2 HT 0-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
21.07.2023 Aarau Aarau 1-0 HT 1-0 Baden Baden İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aarau
2-0
AWAY Baden
1.52 xG 1.29
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 15
10 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
401 Passes 164
84% Pass Accuracy 63%
29 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Aarau vs Baden
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aarau saw off Baden 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Aarau as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Aarau had 64% of the ball to Baden's 36%, shots finished 20-15, expected goals 1.52 to 1.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Aarau had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Aarau and 0.50 for Baden.

What was the final score of Aarau vs Baden?

Aarau 2-0 Baden in the Switzerland Challenge League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aarau vs Baden?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aarau win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Aarau 50%, draw 28%, Baden 22%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aarau) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aarau) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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