Altona Magic 1-4 South Melbourne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒10:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
5.91
Draw
20%
4.81
Away
56%
1.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.61
Over 2.5
59%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
9%
X/2
16%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
33%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
14%
+9.6pp
20%
Draw
18%
+2.4pp
56%
Away Win
68%
-11.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
35%
+6.0pp
59%
Over 2.5
65%
-6.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.1pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Altona Magic EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 72%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
0.73/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.00/0.46
+39% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +150%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
289 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 429 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.6 Crosses 32.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Altona Magic
1W-0D-5L
AWAY South Melbourne
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.68 xG 1.59
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
326 Passes 146
78% Pass Accuracy 61%
22 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
29.07.2023 Altona Magic Altona Magic 1-4 HT 1-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
30.04.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 5-1 HT 1-1 Altona Magic Altona Magic AVNPL
23.07.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 2-0 HT 2-0 Altona Magic Altona Magic AVNPL
25.04.2022 Altona Magic Altona Magic 0-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
26.06.2021 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-2 HT 1-1 Altona Magic Altona Magic AVNPL
27.03.2021 Altona Magic Altona Magic 1-4 HT 1-2 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
POST-MATCH Altona Magic vs South Melbourne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

South Melbourne ran out comfortable winners over Altona Magic 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had South Melbourne as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, South Melbourne led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Altona Magic and 2.83 for South Melbourne.

What was the final score of Altona Magic vs South Melbourne?

Altona Magic 1-4 South Melbourne in the Australia - National Premier League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Altona Magic vs South Melbourne?

Before kick-off our model rated an South Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Altona Magic 24%, draw 20%, South Melbourne 56%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (South Melbourne), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (South Melbourne) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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