Adelaide United (K) 1-2 Brisbane Roar (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 16 Mar 2024

Adelaide United (K)
1-2 HT 1-1
Brisbane Roar (K)
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒06:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Australia - W-League – 2023/2024

Adelaide United (K) vs Brisbane Roar (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
2.57
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
48%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.21
Over 2.5
54%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.53
No
40%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
6%
X/X
5%
2/1
5%
2/2
35%
2/X
13%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
35%
-9.5pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.4pp
48%
Away Win
40%
+7.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.6pp
60%
BTTS Yes
61%
-0.9pp
40%
BTTS No
39%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Adelaide United (K) v Brisbane Roar (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Adelaide United (K) EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Brisbane Roar (K) EU Bookmakers 45%
+53% / +53% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -24% / -24%
2.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/1.52
+54% / +53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -30%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
314 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.5
– Crosses 18.4
– Yellow Cards 2.0

Adelaide United (K) vs Brisbane Roar (K) Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Adelaide United (K)
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Brisbane Roar (K)
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
0.88 xG 2.56
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
254 Passes 356
68% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
14.12.2019 Brisbane Roar (K) Brisbane Roar (K) 3-2 HT 2-1 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) AVUSTW
01.02.2019 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) 1-0 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar (K) Brisbane Roar (K) AVUSTW
18.11.2018 Brisbane Roar (K) Brisbane Roar (K) 0-1 HT 0-0 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) AVUSTW
28.01.2018 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) 2-4 HT 1-1 Brisbane Roar (K) Brisbane Roar (K) AVUSTW
17.11.2017 Brisbane Roar (K) Brisbane Roar (K) 1-0 HT 0-0 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) AVUSTW

Adelaide United (K) 1-2 Brisbane Roar (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Adelaide United (K)
1-2
AWAY Brisbane Roar (K)
1.27 xG 3.40
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 0
384 Passes 372
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Adelaide United (K) vs Brisbane Roar (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brisbane Roar (K) edged past Adelaide United (K) 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Brisbane Roar (K) as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Adelaide United (K) had 52% of the ball to Brisbane Roar (K)'s 48%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 1.27 to 3.40 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Brisbane Roar (K)'s control.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Brisbane Roar (K) led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Adelaide United (K) and 1.60 for Brisbane Roar (K).

What was the final score of Adelaide United (K) vs Brisbane Roar (K)?

Adelaide United (K) 1-2 Brisbane Roar (K) in the Australia - W-League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Adelaide United (K) vs Brisbane Roar (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Brisbane Roar (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Adelaide United (K) 25%, draw 27%, Brisbane Roar (K) 48%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brisbane Roar (K)), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Brisbane Roar (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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