Lens 1-3 Nice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 16 Mar 2024

Lens
1-3 HT 0-1
Nice
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Lens vs Nice Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.07
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.82
6+ Goals
9%
16.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.07 — our 30% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.65
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
13%
4.3
X/2
13%
7.56
X/X
10%
4.52
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
12%
5.82
2/X
8%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-2.9pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.1pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+5.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.2pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lens v Nice — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lens EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Nice EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +0%
1.61/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.45
+24% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +33%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
432 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 80%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
19.1 Crosses 14.5
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.0

Lens vs Nice Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lens
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Nice
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.93 xG 1.43
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
428 Passes 376
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.12.2023 Nice Nice 2-0 HT 0-0 Lens Lens FR1
01.02.2023 Lens Lens 0-1 HT 0-0 Nice Nice FR1
29.12.2022 Nice Nice 0-0 HT 0-0 Lens Lens FR1
10.04.2022 Lens Lens 3-0 HT 0-0 Nice Nice FR1
22.12.2021 Nice Nice 2-1 HT 0-1 Lens Lens FR1
23.01.2021 Lens Lens 0-1 HT 0-0 Nice Nice FR1

Lens 1-3 Nice — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lens
1-3
AWAY Nice
1.26 xG 2.20
60% Ball Possession 40%
20 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 3
464 Passes 270
87% Pass Accuracy 75%
36 Box Touches 15
35 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lens vs Nice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nice beat Lens 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Lens at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lens had 60% of the ball to Nice's 40%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 1.26 to 2.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nice led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Lens and 1.00 for Nice.

What was the final score of Lens vs Nice?

Lens 1-3 Nice in the France - Ligue 1 on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lens vs Nice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lens win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Lens 45%, draw 24%, Nice 30%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lens) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR1 More France - Ligue 1
16 Mar 2024
19:00 Nantes vs RC Strasbourg Analysis →