Hajduk Split 1-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒19:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.42
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
22%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.16
No
59%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.03
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.86
6+ Goals
10%
17.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 30% vs market 27.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
67%
-13.0pp
25%
Draw
21%
+3.6pp
22%
Away Win
12%
+9.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.9pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 15%
-5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +4%
1.48/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.61
-2% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
384 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 73%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
22.0 Crosses 14.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hajduk Split
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.51 xG 0.98
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
342 Passes 267
77% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
08.12.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HT 1-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
23.09.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
07.05.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-3 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
05.03.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 3-4 HT 1-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
30.10.2022 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-2 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
21.08.2022 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-1 HT 2-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hajduk Split
1-2
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.96 xG 2.57
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 9
326 Passes 231
76% Pass Accuracy 72%
28 Box Touches 35
21 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hajduk Split vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiva Zagreb squeezed past Hajduk Split 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Hajduk Split at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hajduk Split had 57% of the ball to Lokomotiva Zagreb's 43%, shots finished 13-19, expected goals 1.96 to 2.57.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hajduk Split had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Hajduk Split and 1.33 for Lokomotiva Zagreb.

What was the final score of Hajduk Split vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Hajduk Split 1-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hajduk Split vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Hajduk Split 54%, draw 25%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 22%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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