Slaven Belupo 0-1 Rijeka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.34
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
51%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.99
No
54%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.19
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.68
6+ Goals
11%
15.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 31% vs market 25.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
6%
X/2
19%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
23%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
16%
+7.8pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.8pp
51%
Away Win
61%
-10.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.3pp
54%
BTTS No
54%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Rijeka EU Bookmakers 66%
+1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +8%
0.82/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/0.94
-29% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -1%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
193 · 62% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 68%
15.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
16.7 Crosses 16.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Slaven Belupo
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Rijeka
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.91 xG 1.10
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
242 Passes 364
72% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.12.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 2-4 HT 0-1 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
24.09.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-1 HT 0-1 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
01.05.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 1-3 HT 0-2 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
25.02.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 0-1 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
23.10.2022 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 2-1 HT 1-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
14.08.2022 Rijeka Rijeka 0-1 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Slaven Belupo
0-1
AWAY Rijeka
0.24 xG 1.26
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
179 Passes 253
60% Pass Accuracy 67%
7 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 21
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Slaven Belupo vs Rijeka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rijeka edged past Slaven Belupo 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Rijeka as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Slaven Belupo had 44% of the ball to Rijeka's 56%, shots finished 9-16, expected goals 0.24 to 1.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Slaven Belupo had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Slaven Belupo and 1.17 for Rijeka.

What was the final score of Slaven Belupo vs Rijeka?

Slaven Belupo 0-1 Rijeka in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Slaven Belupo vs Rijeka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rijeka win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Slaven Belupo 23%, draw 26%, Rijeka 51%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rijeka), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rijeka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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