Toluca U23 1-4 Pumas UNAM U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.5
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
40%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
Over 2.5
49%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
11%
1/X
12%
X/1
12%
X/2
15%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
25%
+6.6pp
29%
Draw
23%
+5.5pp
40%
Away Win
52%
-12.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toluca U23 EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Pumas UNAM U23 EU Bookmakers 56%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
287 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Toluca U23 vs Pumas UNAM U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pumas UNAM U23 cruised past Toluca U23 4-1 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (31% / 29% / 40%) promised a tight game; Pumas UNAM U23 found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

What was the final score of Toluca U23 vs Pumas UNAM U23?

Toluca U23 1-4 Pumas UNAM U23 in the Mexico - Primera A on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toluca U23 vs Pumas UNAM U23?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pumas UNAM U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Toluca U23 31%, draw 29%, Pumas UNAM U23 40%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pumas UNAM U23), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pumas UNAM U23) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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