Queretaro 1-0 FC Juarez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.78
Over 2.5
44%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.03
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.86
6+ Goals
9%
17.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 32% vs market 27.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
26%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-1.9pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.3pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.2pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Queretaro EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 29%
-1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -24%
1.37/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.40
-9% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / -20%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
329 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 76%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
20.6 Crosses 18.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Queretaro
3W-3D-0L
AWAY FC Juarez
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.48 xG 1.17
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
237 Passes 355
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.11.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-3 HT 0-1 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
20.03.2023 Queretaro Queretaro 2-2 HT 1-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
16.07.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-1 HT 1-1 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
01.05.2022 Queretaro Queretaro 4-0 HT 2-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
09.10.2021 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-0 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
26.04.2021 Queretaro Queretaro 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Queretaro
1-0
AWAY FC Juarez
0.39 xG 1.06
32% Ball Possession 68%
11 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 0
133 Passes 383
63% Pass Accuracy 84%
8 Box Touches 28
19 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Queretaro vs FC Juarez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Queretaro nicked a narrow win over FC Juarez 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Queretaro as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Queretaro had 32% of the ball to FC Juarez's 68%, shots finished 11-18, expected goals 0.39 to 1.06 — the balance of chances actually favoured FC Juarez.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Queretaro had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Queretaro and 0.50 for FC Juarez.

What was the final score of Queretaro vs FC Juarez?

Queretaro 1-0 FC Juarez in the Mexico - Primera on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Queretaro vs FC Juarez?

Before kick-off our model rated a Queretaro win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Queretaro 46%, draw 24%, FC Juarez 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Queretaro), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Queretaro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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