Tijuana 2-2 Santos Laguna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.82
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.91
Over 2.5
42%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.44
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.46
6+ Goals
8%
13.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.44 — our 30% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
51%
-7.0pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.9pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
48%
+9.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
52%
-9.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.4pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tijuana EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos Laguna EU Bookmakers 28%
-4% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -18%
1.49/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.63
-20% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -17%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
355 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 75%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
23.3 Crosses 15.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tijuana
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Santos Laguna
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.62 xG 1.45
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 8
302 Passes 272
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
05.10.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 2-1 HT 1-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
13.03.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 3-2 HT 1-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
26.08.2022 Tijuana Tijuana 0-2 HT 0-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
14.03.2022 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 4-0 HT 1-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
11.09.2021 Tijuana Tijuana 2-1 HT 1-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
14.03.2021 Tijuana Tijuana 0-1 HT 0-1 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tijuana
2-2
AWAY Santos Laguna
3.28 xG 1.40
38% Ball Possession 62%
30 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 4
261 Passes 476
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
51 Box Touches 7
35 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Tijuana vs Santos Laguna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tijuana and Santos Laguna shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Tijuana at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tijuana had 38% of the ball to Santos Laguna's 62%, shots finished 30-9, expected goals 3.28 to 1.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santos Laguna led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Tijuana and 2.17 for Santos Laguna.

What was the final score of Tijuana vs Santos Laguna?

Tijuana 2-2 Santos Laguna in the Mexico - Primera on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tijuana vs Santos Laguna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tijuana win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Tijuana 44%, draw 29%, Santos Laguna 27%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Tijuana) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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