Sebail FK 1-2 Neftçi PFK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 16 Mar 2025

Sebail FK
1-2 HT 1-2
Neftçi PFK
📅16/03/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Azerbaijan - Super League – 2025/2026

Sebail FK vs Neftçi PFK Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.5
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
42%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.56
Over 2.5
44%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
15%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
25%
+3.9pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.9pp
42%
Away Win
47%
-4.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
60%
-3.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
40%
+3.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.5pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sebail FK v Neftçi PFK — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sebail FK EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 51%
+4% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -20%
1.17/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.34
+5% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -25%
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
267 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7

Sebail FK vs Neftçi PFK Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sebail FK
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Neftçi PFK
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
The Meetings
19.10.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 3-1 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
10.08.2024 Sebail FK Sebail FK 1-1 HT 0-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
18.05.2024 Sebail FK Sebail FK 0-3 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
15.03.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 3-0 HT 2-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
20.10.2023 Sebail FK Sebail FK 2-4 HT 1-2 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
14.08.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-1 HT 0-1 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
POST-MATCH Sebail FK vs Neftçi PFK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neftçi PFK edged past Sebail FK 2-1 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Neftçi PFK as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Neftçi PFK led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sebail FK and 2.50 for Neftçi PFK.

What was the final score of Sebail FK vs Neftçi PFK?

Sebail FK 1-2 Neftçi PFK in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sebail FK vs Neftçi PFK?

Before kick-off our model rated an Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sebail FK 29%, draw 29%, Neftçi PFK 42%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Neftçi PFK) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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16 Mar 2025
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