Turan Tovuz 1-2 Sumqayıt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.51
Over 2.5
36%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.09
No
61%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
18%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.4pp
27%
Draw
30%
-2.1pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+2.6pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+1.1pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-1.1pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-5.2pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Turan Tovuz EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sumqayıt EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +29%
1.82/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.75
+58% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +56%
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
287 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Turan Tovuz
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Sumqayıt
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
20.10.2024 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 2-4 HT 1-3 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
11.08.2024 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 1-0 HT 1-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
19.04.2024 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 1-4 HT 0-2 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
18.02.2024 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 0-0 HT 0-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
02.12.2023 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 2-2 HT 0-2 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
23.09.2023 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 0-0 HT 0-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
POST-MATCH Turan Tovuz vs Sumqayıt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sumqayıt nicked a narrow win over Turan Tovuz 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Turan Tovuz at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Turan Tovuz had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Turan Tovuz and 1.33 for Sumqayıt.

What was the final score of Turan Tovuz vs Sumqayıt?

Turan Tovuz 1-2 Sumqayıt in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Turan Tovuz vs Sumqayıt?

Before kick-off our model rated a Turan Tovuz win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Turan Tovuz 42%, draw 27%, Sumqayıt 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Turan Tovuz) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
16 Mar 2025
15:00 Sebail FK vs Neftçi PFK Analysis →