Winchester City 2-0 Merthyr Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 16 Apr 2024

Winchester City
2-0 HT 2-0
Merthyr Town
📅16/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - Non League Premier – 2023/2024

Winchester City vs Merthyr Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.94
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
37%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.51
Over 2.5
51%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.43
No
45%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
31%
+8.4pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.6pp
37%
Away Win
46%
-9.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
36%
+13.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
64%
-13.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
66%
-11.1pp
45%
BTTS No
34%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Winchester City v Merthyr Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Winchester City EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Merthyr Town EU Bookmakers 49%
+6% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.48/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/1.41
+3% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -4%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
267 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 452 · 85%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.6 Yellow Cards 0.6

Winchester City vs Merthyr Town Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Winchester City
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Merthyr Town
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
The Meetings
24.10.2023 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 1-2 HT 1-1 Winchester City Winchester City İNGNLP
04.02.2023 Winchester City Winchester City 2-2 HT 0-2 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
27.09.2022 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 5-2 HT 4-1 Winchester City Winchester City İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Winchester City vs Merthyr Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Winchester City got the better of Merthyr Town 2-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 24% / 37%) promised a tight game; Winchester City found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Winchester City and 2.67 for Merthyr Town.

What was the final score of Winchester City vs Merthyr Town?

Winchester City 2-0 Merthyr Town in the England - Non League Premier on 16/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Winchester City vs Merthyr Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Winchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Winchester City 39%, draw 24%, Merthyr Town 37%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Winchester City) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Winchester City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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