Western United 3-3 Adelaide United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 16 Apr 2024

Western United
3-3 HT 2-1
Adelaide United
📅16/04/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Western United vs Adelaide United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.53
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
30%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.89
Over 2.5
55%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.35
No
45%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.95
2-3 Goals
43%
2.18
4-5 Goals
23%
2.47
6+ Goals
13%
4.88
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.63
1/2
4%
21.15
1/X
5%
12.8
X/1
15%
6.53
X/2
7%
5.64
X/X
9%
6.59
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
24.0
2/2
18%
2.97
2/X
12%
12.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.0 — our 12% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
36%
+9.3pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.1pp
30%
Away Win
41%
-11.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
31%
+13.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
69%
-13.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
70%
-15.2pp
45%
BTTS No
30%
+15.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Western United v Adelaide United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Western United EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Adelaide United EU Bookmakers 45%
+9% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +10%
1.73/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.96
-11% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +64% / -24%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
373 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 80%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.4
20.3 Crosses 21.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Western United vs Adelaide United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Western United
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Adelaide United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
2.02 xG 2.10
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 7
381 Passes 397
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
32 Box Touches 36
22 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.03.2024 Adelaide United Adelaide United 4-1 HT 1-0 Western United Western United AVUS
26.11.2023 Western United Western United 1-3 HT 0-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
16.04.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 0-1 HT 0-1 Western United Western United AVUS
11.02.2023 Western United Western United 2-3 HT 1-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
06.11.2022 Western United Western United 2-4 HT 0-3 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
08.05.2022 Adelaide United Adelaide United 2-1 HT 1-1 Western United Western United AVUS

Western United 3-3 Adelaide United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Western United
3-3
AWAY Adelaide United
1.27 xG 3.52
44% Ball Possession 56%
17 Total Shots 23
8 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 7
322 Passes 447
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
35 Box Touches 39
15 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Western United vs Adelaide United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Western United and Adelaide United shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Western United at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Western United had 44% of the ball to Adelaide United's 56%, shots finished 17-23, expected goals 1.27 to 3.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Adelaide United led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Western United and 2.67 for Adelaide United.

What was the final score of Western United vs Adelaide United?

Western United 3-3 Adelaide United in the Australia - A-League on 16/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Western United vs Adelaide United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Western United win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Western United 45%, draw 25%, Adelaide United 30%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Western United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Western United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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