UPDF 1-1 Gaddafi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 16 Apr 2024

UPDF
1-1
Gaddafi
📅16/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Uganda - Premier League – 2025/2026

UPDF vs Gaddafi Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
23%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.67
Over 2.5
41%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.9
No
60%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
23%
X/2
10%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
44%
+7.0pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.1pp
23%
Away Win
27%
-3.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.4pp
40%
BTTS Yes
49%
-9.1pp
60%
BTTS No
51%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

UPDF v Gaddafi — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UPDF EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Gaddafi EU Bookmakers 31%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
0.98/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.02
-26% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +23%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
330 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

UPDF vs Gaddafi Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UPDF
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Gaddafi
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
The Meetings
29.03.2022 Gaddafi Gaddafi 1-3 HT 1-1 UPDF UPDF UGA
02.11.2021 UPDF UPDF 2-2 HT 2-2 Gaddafi Gaddafi UGA

UPDF 1-1 Gaddafi — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UPDF
1-1
AWAY Gaddafi
51% Ball Possession 49%
2 Total Shots 4
1 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH UPDF vs Gaddafi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UPDF and Gaddafi shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was UPDF at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

On the day, UPDF had 51% of the ball to Gaddafi's 49%, shots finished 2-4.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, UPDF had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for UPDF and 1.50 for Gaddafi.

What was the final score of UPDF vs Gaddafi?

UPDF 1-1 Gaddafi in the Uganda - Premier League on 16/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UPDF vs Gaddafi?

Before kick-off our model rated a UPDF win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split UPDF 51%, draw 26%, Gaddafi 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (UPDF), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (UPDF) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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