Penafiel 1-1 Torreense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 16 May 2024

📅16/05/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
37%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.09
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.78
6+ Goals
10%
16.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.09 — our 29% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
43%
-5.1pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+7.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.9pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Torreense EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
1.38/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.23
-6% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
296 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
24.4 Crosses 19.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penafiel
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Torreense
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.37 xG 2.38
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
384 Passes 347
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
15.01.2024 Torreense Torreense 1-0 HT 1-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
21.05.2023 Torreense Torreense 5-1 HT 2-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
14.01.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 0-0 HT 0-0 Torreense Torreense POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
1-1
AWAY Torreense
1.34 xG 0.69
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 7
411 Passes 428
86% Pass Accuracy 87%
22 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs Torreense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penafiel and Torreense shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 25% / 37% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Penafiel had 49% of the ball to Torreense's 51%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.34 to 0.69.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Torreense led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Penafiel and 2.00 for Torreense.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs Torreense?

Penafiel 1-1 Torreense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 16/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Torreense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 38%, draw 25%, Torreense 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Penafiel), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Penafiel) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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