Coventry 3-2 Oxford United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 16 Aug 2024

📅16/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
32%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.1
Over 2.5
47%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.7
No
53%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.05
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.09
6+ Goals
11%
9.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.05 — our 29% vs market 19.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.14
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.5
X/1
12%
4.06
X/2
11%
9.69
X/X
14%
5.57
2/1
7%
21.85
2/2
15%
7.12
2/X
6%
15.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
56%
-13.8pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.6pp
32%
Away Win
21%
+11.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.7pp
53%
BTTS No
45%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Coventry EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Oxford United EU Bookmakers 24%
-10% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-23% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
298 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 71%
28.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.7 Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Coventry
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Oxford United
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.01 xG 1.16
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
220 Passes 350
67% Pass Accuracy 79%
11 Box Touches 33
10 Crosses 45
2 Yellow Cards 4
06.01.2024 Coventry Coventry 6-2 HT 3-1 Oxford United Oxford United FAK
31.08.2019 Oxford United Oxford United 3-3 HT 0-1 Coventry Coventry İN1
23.03.2019 Coventry Coventry 0-1 HT 0-0 Oxford United Oxford United İN1
09.09.2018 Oxford United Oxford United 1-2 HT 0-0 Coventry Coventry İN1
14.08.2018 Oxford United Oxford United 2-0 HT 1-0 Coventry Coventry İNLK
02.04.2017 Coventry Coventry 2-1 HT 1-0 Oxford United Oxford United İNTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Coventry
3-2
AWAY Oxford United
2.95 xG 0.96
64% Ball Possession 36%
26 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 2
13 Corners 1
461 Passes 260
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
46 Box Touches 12
47 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Coventry vs Oxford United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Coventry nicked a narrow win over Oxford United 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Coventry as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Coventry had 64% of the ball to Oxford United's 36%, shots finished 26-7, expected goals 2.95 to 0.96 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Coventry's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Coventry had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Coventry and 1.67 for Oxford United.

What was the final score of Coventry vs Oxford United?

Coventry 3-2 Oxford United in the England - Championship on 16/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Coventry vs Oxford United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Coventry win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Coventry 42%, draw 26%, Oxford United 32%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Coventry) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Coventry) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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