Brescia 1-0 Palermo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 16 Aug 2024

Brescia
1-0 HT 0-0
Palermo
📅16/08/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2024/2025

Brescia vs Palermo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
39%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.68
Over 2.5
39%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.85
No
57%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.74
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.26
6+ Goals
8%
21.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.74 — our 33% vs market 30.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.24
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
9%
13.55
X/1
10%
5.75
X/2
18%
5.09
X/X
14%
4.08
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
14%
3.57
2/X
5%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-0.9pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.2pp
39%
Away Win
37%
+2.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+5.6pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-5.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
50%
-7.0pp
57%
BTTS No
50%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brescia v Palermo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brescia EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Palermo EU Bookmakers 40%
+3% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +11%
1.21/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.23
+7% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -5%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
254 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 77%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
20.5 Crosses 20.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2

Brescia vs Palermo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brescia
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Palermo
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.85 xG 0.93
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
328 Passes 325
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.03.2024 Brescia Brescia 4-2 HT 4-2 Palermo Palermo İTB
08.11.2023 Palermo Palermo 1-0 HT 1-0 Brescia Brescia İTB
19.05.2023 Palermo Palermo 2-2 HT 2-0 Brescia Brescia İTB
26.12.2022 Brescia Brescia 1-1 HT 0-0 Palermo Palermo İTB
15.02.2019 Palermo Palermo 1-1 HT 0-0 Brescia Brescia İTB
25.09.2018 Brescia Brescia 2-1 HT 2-0 Palermo Palermo İTB

Brescia 1-0 Palermo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brescia
1-0
AWAY Palermo
1.43 xG 0.55
38% Ball Possession 62%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 6
259 Passes 479
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
24 Box Touches 24
24 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Brescia vs Palermo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brescia edged past Palermo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (33% / 28% / 39%) promised a tight game; Brescia found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Brescia had 38% of the ball to Palermo's 62%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 1.43 to 0.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brescia had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Brescia and 1.33 for Palermo.

What was the final score of Brescia vs Palermo?

Brescia 1-0 Palermo in the Italy - Serie B on 16/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brescia vs Palermo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Palermo win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Brescia 33%, draw 28%, Palermo 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Palermo) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Palermo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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