Spartak Varna 1-0 Arda Kardzhali — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 16 Aug 2024

📅16/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
34%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.62
Over 2.5
38%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.95
No
62%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
23%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-5.3pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.3pp
34%
Away Win
26%
+8.5pp
62%
Under 2.5
58%
+4.6pp
38%
Over 2.5
42%
-4.6pp
38%
BTTS Yes
47%
-9.3pp
62%
BTTS No
53%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Varna EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Arda Kardzhali EU Bookmakers 29%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.00/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.41/0.60
-7% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -60% / +83%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
349 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Varna
1-0
AWAY Arda Kardzhali
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
8 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Varna squeezed past Arda Kardzhali 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Spartak Varna as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Spartak Varna had 51% of the ball to Arda Kardzhali's 49%, shots finished 10-9.

What was the final score of Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?

Spartak Varna 1-0 Arda Kardzhali in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 16/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spartak Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Spartak Varna 41%, draw 25%, Arda Kardzhali 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spartak Varna), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Spartak Varna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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