Le Havre 1-4 PSG — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 16 Aug 2024

Le Havre
1-4 HT 0-1
PSG
📅16/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Le Havre vs PSG Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.4
Draw
26%
4.19
Away
51%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.88
2-3 Goals
43%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.16
6+ Goals
9%
10.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 27% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
10.7
1/2
7%
22.3
1/X
7%
19.0
X/1
7%
13.4
X/2
13%
3.56
X/X
11%
6.22
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
31%
1.77
2/X
8%
18.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
15%
+7.2pp
26%
Draw
21%
+5.6pp
51%
Away Win
64%
-12.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.7pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Le Havre v PSG — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Le Havre EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY PSG EU Bookmakers 69%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +11%
1.49/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.03/1.30
-28% / +69% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +10%
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
268 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 486 · 84%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.1
14.7 Crosses 14.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8

Le Havre vs PSG Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Le Havre
0W-1D-5L
AWAY PSG
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.52 xG 1.91
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
356 Passes 499
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
24 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.04.2024 PSG PSG 3-3 HT 1-2 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
03.12.2023 Le Havre Le Havre 0-2 HT 0-1 PSG PSG FR1
19.04.2009 PSG PSG 3-0 HT 1-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
15.11.2008 Le Havre Le Havre 1-3 HT 0-2 PSG PSG FR1
15.01.2003 PSG PSG 1-0 HT 1-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
25.08.2002 Le Havre Le Havre 0-1 HT 0-0 PSG PSG FR1

Le Havre 1-4 PSG — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Le Havre
1-4
AWAY PSG
0.21 xG 2.87
24% Ball Possession 76%
5 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 8
189 Passes 770
75% Pass Accuracy 93%
10 Box Touches 32
10 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Le Havre vs PSG
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG ran out comfortable winners over Le Havre 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had PSG as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Le Havre had 24% of the ball to PSG's 76%, shots finished 5-15, expected goals 0.21 to 2.87.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSG led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Le Havre and 2.17 for PSG.

What was the final score of Le Havre vs PSG?

Le Havre 1-4 PSG in the France - Ligue 1 on 16/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Le Havre vs PSG?

Before kick-off our model rated an PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Le Havre 23%, draw 26%, PSG 51%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSG) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (PSG) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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