Consadole Sapporo 5-3 Sagan Tosu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 16 Aug 2024

Consadole Sapporo
5-3 HT 3-0
Sagan Tosu
📅16/08/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Consadole Sapporo vs Sagan Tosu Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
36%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.55
No
45%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.42
2-3 Goals
38%
1.89
4-5 Goals
24%
2.93
6+ Goals
12%
8.66
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.96
1/2
10%
28.5
1/X
6%
12.95
X/1
13%
5.06
X/2
10%
6.53
X/X
12%
5.45
2/1
6%
23.15
2/2
16%
4.22
2/X
10%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
43%
-6.8pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.4pp
36%
Away Win
32%
+3.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.6pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Consadole Sapporo v Sagan Tosu — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Consadole Sapporo EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 36%
+2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +29%
1.55/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.23
+19% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
389 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 79%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
19.0 Crosses 16.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.5

Consadole Sapporo vs Sagan Tosu Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Consadole Sapporo
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Sagan Tosu
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.68 xG 1.22
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
385 Passes 335
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
33 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.03.2024 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 4-0 HT 1-0 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo JAP
12.08.2023 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo 1-1 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
10.06.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-1 HT 0-1 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo JAP
19.04.2023 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo 4-1 HT 1-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JLK
08.03.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-0 HT 0-0 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo JLK
20.08.2022 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo 1-2 HT 1-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP

Consadole Sapporo 5-3 Sagan Tosu — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Consadole Sapporo
5-3
AWAY Sagan Tosu
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 0
POST-MATCH Consadole Sapporo vs Sagan Tosu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Consadole Sapporo beat Sagan Tosu 5-3. Half-time: 3-0. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 36%) promised a tight game; Consadole Sapporo found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Consadole Sapporo had 57% of the ball to Sagan Tosu's 43%, shots finished 18-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sagan Tosu led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Consadole Sapporo and 1.50 for Sagan Tosu.

What was the final score of Consadole Sapporo vs Sagan Tosu?

Consadole Sapporo 5-3 Sagan Tosu in the Japan - J1 League on 16/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Consadole Sapporo vs Sagan Tosu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Consadole Sapporo win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Consadole Sapporo 36%, draw 28%, Sagan Tosu 36%. The final score 5-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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