Puszcza Niepolomice 4-1 Lechia Gdansk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 16 Aug 2024

📅16/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
26%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.86
Over 2.5
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.73
No
56%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.27
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.61
6+ Goals
9%
14.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.27 — our 28% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.15
1/2
5%
32.5
1/X
9%
13.15
X/1
20%
4.89
X/2
9%
6.29
X/X
13%
4.59
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
12%
4.48
2/X
5%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
42%
+4.7pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.3pp
26%
Away Win
31%
-4.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
54%
-10.1pp
56%
BTTS No
46%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 34%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -18%
1.44/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.68
+15% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
300 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 81%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
14.3 Crosses 23.4
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
32% Ball Possession 68%
5 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
09.02.2021 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 3-1 HT 1-1 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POLK
12.08.2015 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 1-5 HT 1-3 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice
4-1
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
2.38 xG 1.19
41% Ball Possession 59%
14 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
235 Passes 363
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
33 Box Touches 26
11 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Puszcza Niepolomice vs Lechia Gdansk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puszcza Niepolomice cruised past Lechia Gdansk 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Puszcza Niepolomice as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Puszcza Niepolomice had 41% of the ball to Lechia Gdansk's 59%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 2.38 to 1.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Puszcza Niepolomice and 3.00 for Lechia Gdansk.

What was the final score of Puszcza Niepolomice vs Lechia Gdansk?

Puszcza Niepolomice 4-1 Lechia Gdansk in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 16/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puszcza Niepolomice vs Lechia Gdansk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Puszcza Niepolomice win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Puszcza Niepolomice 47%, draw 27%, Lechia Gdansk 26%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Puszcza Niepolomice) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Puszcza Niepolomice) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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