Rayo Vallecano 3-1 Osasuna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 16 Sep 2024

📅16/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.54
Over
42%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1
35%
2.32
2-3
37%
1.78
4-5
20%
5.23
6+
8%
32.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.95
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.6
X/1
15%
4.24
X/2
9%
6.96
X/X
16%
3.75
2/1
8%
31.5
2/2
13%
5.9
2/X
7%
15.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
41%
Home Win
45%
-4.0pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.1pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
61%
-2.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
39%
+2.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.0pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rayo Vallecano The Market 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Osasuna The Market 29%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -5%
1.33/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.19
-13% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
326 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 72%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
24.8 Crosses 18.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rayo Vallecano
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Osasuna
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.57 xG 1.07
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
302 Passes 270
75% Pass Accuracy 70%
16 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.04.2024 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-1 HT 0-1 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
15.12.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 1-0 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
14.04.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-1 HT 2-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
04.09.2022 Osasuna Osasuna 2-1 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
12.02.2022 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-3 HT 0-2 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
02.10.2021 Osasuna Osasuna 1-0 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rayo Vallecano
3-1
AWAY Osasuna
1.68 xG 0.33
66% Ball Possession 34%
17 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
384 Passes 147
79% Pass Accuracy 58%
26 Box Touches 19
28 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rayo Vallecano saw off Osasuna 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Rayo Vallecano as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rayo Vallecano had 66% of the ball to Osasuna's 34%, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 1.68 to 0.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Osasuna led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.50 for Osasuna.

What was the final score of Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?

Rayo Vallecano 3-1 Osasuna in the Spain - Primera Liga on 16/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Rayo Vallecano 41%, draw 30%, Osasuna 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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