Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Osasuna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 20 Apr 2024

Rayo Vallecano
2-1 HT 0-1
Osasuna
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.48
Over 2.5
35%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.16
No
63%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2.13
2-3 Goals
36%
1.82
4-5 Goals
16%
5.94
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.06
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.65
X/1
18%
4.28
X/2
11%
6.95
X/X
10%
3.45
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
12%
6.05
2/X
9%
15.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Rayo Vallecano win — 43%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-0.7pp
27%
Draw
31%
-3.9pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+4.6pp
64%
Under 2.5
64%
+0.6pp
36%
Over 2.5
36%
-0.6pp
37%
BTTS Yes
42%
-5.2pp
63%
BTTS No
58%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rayo Vallecano v Osasuna — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Osasuna EU Bookmakers 29%
-5% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
1.38/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.22
-17% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +18%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
315 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 68%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
24.8 Crosses 19.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5

Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rayo Vallecano
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Osasuna
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.58 xG 1.18
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
286 Passes 287
74% Pass Accuracy 72%
15 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.12.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 1-0 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
14.04.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-1 HT 2-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
04.09.2022 Osasuna Osasuna 2-1 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
12.02.2022 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-3 HT 0-2 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
02.10.2021 Osasuna Osasuna 1-0 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
02.02.2018 Osasuna Osasuna 1-1 HT 0-1 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS2

Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Osasuna — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rayo Vallecano
2-1
AWAY Osasuna
0.53 xG 0.53
64% Ball Possession 36%
17 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 1
426 Passes 194
80% Pass Accuracy 64%
22 Box Touches 8
25 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rayo Vallecano edged past Osasuna 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Rayo Vallecano as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rayo Vallecano had 64% of the ball to Osasuna's 36%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 0.53 to 0.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Osasuna led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.50 for Osasuna.

What was the final score of Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?

Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Osasuna in the Spain - Primera Liga on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Rayo Vallecano 43%, draw 27%, Osasuna 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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