Girona 4-1 Cadiz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 20 Apr 2024

Girona
4-1 HT 2-0
Cadiz
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.43
Draw
27%
4.19
Away
18%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.1
Over 2.5
45%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.04
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.09
6+ Goals
10%
9.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.04 — our 27% vs market 19.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.72
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
18.15
X/1
17%
3.59
X/2
6%
14.3
X/X
14%
6.29
2/1
9%
22.7
2/2
7%
11.35
2/X
8%
19.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Girona win — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
65%
-10.8pp
27%
Draw
20%
+6.3pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+4.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
44%
+11.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
56%
-11.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.4pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Girona EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Cadiz EU Bookmakers 17%
+19% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -4%
1.74/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.62
+45% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / +30%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
395 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 70%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
20.8 Crosses 18.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Girona
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Cadiz
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.22 xG 0.78
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
392 Passes 211
83% Pass Accuracy 71%
19 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
07.10.2023 Cadiz Cadiz 0-1 HT 0-0 Girona Girona İS1
10.02.2023 Cadiz Cadiz 2-0 HT 2-0 Girona Girona İS1
15.10.2022 Girona Girona 1-1 HT 0-0 Cadiz Cadiz İS1
16.01.2021 Girona Girona 2-0 HT 0-0 Cadiz Cadiz İSPK
17.07.2020 Girona Girona 2-1 HT 1-0 Cadiz Cadiz İS2
14.09.2019 Cadiz Cadiz 2-0 HT 1-0 Girona Girona İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Girona
4-1
AWAY Cadiz
2.07 xG 1.87
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
502 Passes 336
91% Pass Accuracy 84%
35 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Girona vs Cadiz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Girona ran out comfortable winners over Cadiz 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Girona as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Girona had 57% of the ball to Cadiz's 43%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 2.07 to 1.87.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Girona had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Girona and 1.00 for Cadiz.

What was the final score of Girona vs Cadiz?

Girona 4-1 Cadiz in the Spain - Primera Liga on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Girona vs Cadiz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Girona win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Girona 55%, draw 27%, Cadiz 19%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Girona) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Girona) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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