Celta Vigo 4-1 Las Palmas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.66
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.86
Over 2.5
42%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.26
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.61
6+ Goals
11%
14.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.26 — our 29% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.16
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
10%
15.2
X/1
21%
3.86
X/2
13%
9.78
X/X
5%
5.0
2/1
6%
24.0
2/2
9%
7.82
2/X
11%
16.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Celta Vigo win — 47%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
56%
-9.4pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.5pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+6.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
50%
+7.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
50%
-7.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.2pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Las Palmas EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +11%
1.52/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.29
-1% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -1%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
349 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 73%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
20.4 Crosses 16.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celta Vigo
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Las Palmas
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.71 xG 1.45
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
250 Passes 462
74% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.10.2023 Las Palmas Las Palmas 2-1 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
05.03.2018 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 2-1 HT 0-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
16.10.2017 Las Palmas Las Palmas 2-5 HT 0-2 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
03.04.2017 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 3-1 HT 2-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
30.10.2016 Las Palmas Las Palmas 3-3 HT 0-3 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
31.01.2016 Las Palmas Las Palmas 2-1 HT 1-1 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celta Vigo
4-1
AWAY Las Palmas
3.99 xG 0.98
32% Ball Possession 68%
21 Total Shots 9
13 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
284 Passes 696
83% Pass Accuracy 91%
36 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celta Vigo cruised past Las Palmas 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Celta Vigo as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Celta Vigo had 32% of the ball to Las Palmas's 68%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 3.99 to 0.98.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celta Vigo had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.83 for Las Palmas.

What was the final score of Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas?

Celta Vigo 4-1 Las Palmas in the Spain - Primera Liga on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celta Vigo win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Celta Vigo 47%, draw 27%, Las Palmas 27%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celta Vigo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Celta Vigo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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