Parma 2-3 Udinese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 16 Sep 2024

📅16/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
35%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
1.82
Over
52%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.22
2-3
37%
1.78
4-5
26%
3.65
6+
10%
15.05
Value flag · 4-5 at 3.65 — our 26% vs market 22.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.04
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.2
X/1
9%
4.76
X/2
17%
6.53
X/X
13%
4.54
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
12%
4.73
2/X
9%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
37%
Home Win
43%
-6.4pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.6pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+5.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
51%
-2.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
49%
+2.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.6pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parma The Market 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Udinese The Market 33%
-1% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -10%
1.60/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.13
-20% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +19%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
339 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 77%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
21.4 Crosses 17.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parma
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Udinese
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.65 xG 1.61
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
339 Passes 369
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 34
3 Yellow Cards 3
21.02.2021 Parma Parma 2-2 HT 2-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
18.10.2020 Udinese Udinese 3-2 HT 1-1 Parma Parma İTA
26.01.2020 Parma Parma 2-0 HT 2-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
01.09.2019 Udinese Udinese 1-3 HT 1-1 Parma Parma İTA
19.01.2019 Udinese Udinese 1-2 HT 0-1 Parma Parma İTA
19.08.2018 Parma Parma 2-2 HT 1-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parma
2-3
AWAY Udinese
0.80 xG 2.66
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
345 Passes 394
82% Pass Accuracy 87%
19 Box Touches 27
4 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Parma vs Udinese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Udinese squeezed past Parma 3-2 away from home. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Udinese made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Parma had 47% of the ball to Udinese's 53%, shots finished 9-18, expected goals 0.80 to 2.66 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Udinese's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Parma had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Parma and 1.50 for Udinese.

What was the final score of Parma vs Udinese?

Parma 2-3 Udinese in the Italy - Serie A on 16/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parma vs Udinese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Parma win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Parma 37%, draw 28%, Udinese 35%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Parma) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Parma) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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