Leones Negros Udeg 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 16 Sep 2024

Leones Negros Udeg
1-0 HT 1-0
Tepatitlán de Morelos
📅16/09/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera A – 2024/2025

Leones Negros Udeg vs Tepatitlán de Morelos Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
19%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.86
Over 2.5
54%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.95
No
57%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
13%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
60%
-5.1pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.0pp
19%
Away Win
17%
+2.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
50%
-3.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
50%
+3.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.6pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leones Negros Udeg v Tepatitlán de Morelos — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leones Negros Udeg EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 20%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -15%
2.41/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.78
+33% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
380 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 3.6

Leones Negros Udeg vs Tepatitlán de Morelos Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leones Negros Udeg
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
The Meetings
11.04.2024 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 3-2 HT 3-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
13.08.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-0 HT 0-0 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
28.04.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-1 HT 0-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
19.02.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 HT 0-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
11.07.2022 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 3-0 HT 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
10.03.2022 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 2-1 HT 1-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
POST-MATCH Leones Negros Udeg vs Tepatitlán de Morelos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leones Negros Udeg edged past Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Leones Negros Udeg as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (57%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leones Negros Udeg had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Leones Negros Udeg and 0.67 for Tepatitlán de Morelos.

What was the final score of Leones Negros Udeg vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Leones Negros Udeg 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos in the Mexico - Primera A on 16/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leones Negros Udeg vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leones Negros Udeg win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Leones Negros Udeg 55%, draw 26%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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