Znicz Pruszkow 2-3 Chrobry Glogow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 16 Sep 2024

📅16/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.86
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.17
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.7
6+ Goals
9%
15.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.17 — our 29% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
13%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
50%
-7.6pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.1pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.7pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Znicz Pruszkow EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Chrobry Glogow EU Bookmakers 28%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +13%
1.34/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.48
-19% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +0%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
324 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Znicz Pruszkow
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Chrobry Glogow
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 4
05.05.2024 Znicz Pruszkow Znicz Pruszkow 1-1 HT 0-1 Chrobry Glogow Chrobry Glogow POL1
06.11.2023 Chrobry Glogow Chrobry Glogow 1-0 HT 0-0 Znicz Pruszkow Znicz Pruszkow POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Znicz Pruszkow
2-3
AWAY Chrobry Glogow
63% Ball Possession 37%
19 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Znicz Pruszkow vs Chrobry Glogow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chrobry Glogow nicked a narrow win over Znicz Pruszkow 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Znicz Pruszkow at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Znicz Pruszkow had 63% of the ball to Chrobry Glogow's 37%, shots finished 19-4.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Chrobry Glogow led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Znicz Pruszkow and 1.00 for Chrobry Glogow.

What was the final score of Znicz Pruszkow vs Chrobry Glogow?

Znicz Pruszkow 2-3 Chrobry Glogow in the Poland - 1st Division on 16/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Znicz Pruszkow vs Chrobry Glogow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Znicz Pruszkow win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Znicz Pruszkow 42%, draw 29%, Chrobry Glogow 29%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Znicz Pruszkow) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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