Galatasaray 4-3 Trabzonspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 16 Dec 2024

📅16/12/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
21%
4.62
Away
24%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.98
Over 2.5
59%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.5
No
47%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
7.3
2-3 Goals
37%
2.21
4-5 Goals
32%
2.36
6+ Goals
11%
4.31
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.67
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.6
X/1
19%
4.03
X/2
9%
14.8
X/X
6%
8.57
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
18.25
2/2
8%
9.41
2/X
8%
17.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.25 — our 9% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
66%
-11.6pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.6pp
24%
Away Win
15%
+9.0pp
41%
Under 2.5
30%
+10.7pp
59%
Over 2.5
70%
-10.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
62%
-9.2pp
47%
BTTS No
38%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Galatasaray EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Trabzonspor EU Bookmakers 18%
+7% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
2.16/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.67
+13% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +0%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
436 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 77%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
21.7 Crosses 15.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Galatasaray
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Trabzonspor
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.78 xG 1.18
50% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
300 Passes 295
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
29 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.01.2024 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 1-5 HT 0-1 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
19.08.2023 Galatasaray Galatasaray 2-0 HT 1-0 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor TSL
05.02.2023 Galatasaray Galatasaray 2-1 HT 1-1 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor TSL
28.08.2022 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 0-0 HT 0-0 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
23.01.2022 Galatasaray Galatasaray 1-2 HT 1-0 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor TSL
12.09.2021 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 2-2 HT 1-2 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Galatasaray
4-3
AWAY Trabzonspor
2.84 xG 1.48
59% Ball Possession 41%
22 Total Shots 15
11 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 6
320 Passes 218
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
35 Box Touches 24
25 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Galatasaray vs Trabzonspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Galatasaray edged past Trabzonspor 4-3. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Galatasaray as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Galatasaray had 59% of the ball to Trabzonspor's 41%, shots finished 22-15, expected goals 2.84 to 1.48 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Galatasaray's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Galatasaray had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Galatasaray and 1.00 for Trabzonspor.

What was the final score of Galatasaray vs Trabzonspor?

Galatasaray 4-3 Trabzonspor in the Turkey - Super League on 16/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Galatasaray vs Trabzonspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Galatasaray win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Galatasaray 55%, draw 21%, Trabzonspor 24%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Galatasaray), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Galatasaray) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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