Sampdoria 1-2 Cesena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 17 Jan 2025

📅17/01/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.27
Draw
33%
2.88
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
1.56
Over
41%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2.34
2-3
41%
1.74
4-5
19%
4.78
6+
8%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.41
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.05
X/1
17%
5.03
X/2
12%
6.46
X/X
18%
3.64
2/1
7%
32.5
2/2
10%
5.04
2/X
7%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
39%
Home Win
40%
-1.5pp
33%
Draw
31%
+1.7pp
29%
Away Win
29%
-0.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
60%
-1.1pp
41%
Over 2.5
40%
+1.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.4pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sampdoria The Market 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Cesena The Market 32%
-11% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -22%
1.53/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.33
+3% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / -5%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
287 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 78%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
18.4 Crosses 16.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sampdoria
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Cesena
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
2.08 xG 0.69
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
366 Passes 297
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
20.10.2024 Cesena Cesena 3-5 HT 2-2 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTB
18.04.2015 Sampdoria Sampdoria 0-0 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena İTA
23.11.2014 Cesena Cesena 1-1 HT 0-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTA
06.03.2011 Sampdoria Sampdoria 2-3 HT 0-1 Cesena Cesena İTA
31.10.2010 Cesena Cesena 0-1 HT 0-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sampdoria
1-2
AWAY Cesena
0.77 xG 1.54
59% Ball Possession 41%
8 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 4
425 Passes 258
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sampdoria vs Cesena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cesena edged past Sampdoria 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 33% / 29%) promised a tight game; Cesena found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sampdoria had 59% of the ball to Cesena's 41%, shots finished 8-16, expected goals 0.77 to 1.54.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Sampdoria had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Sampdoria and 1.40 for Cesena.

What was the final score of Sampdoria vs Cesena?

Sampdoria 1-2 Cesena in the Italy - Serie B on 17/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sampdoria vs Cesena?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sampdoria win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Sampdoria 39%, draw 33%, Cesena 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sampdoria) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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