Cesena 3-5 Sampdoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.19
Draw
23%
3.11
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.64
Over 2.5
53%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.88
No
46%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.65
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
26%
4.43
6+ Goals
11%
23.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
3.29
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.55
X/1
9%
4.77
X/2
18%
6.18
X/X
10%
4.0
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
30.0
2/2
10%
4.75
2/X
6%
13.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.0 — our 7% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+1.6pp
23%
Draw
29%
-5.3pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
57%
-10.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
43%
+10.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.4pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cesena EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sampdoria EU Bookmakers 33%
+8% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +15%
1.55/2.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.35
+29% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -12%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
316 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 74%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
26.0 Crosses 17.8
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cesena
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Sampdoria
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
251 Passes 378
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
18.04.2015 Sampdoria Sampdoria 0-0 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena İTA
23.11.2014 Cesena Cesena 1-1 HT 0-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTA
06.03.2011 Sampdoria Sampdoria 2-3 HT 0-1 Cesena Cesena İTA
31.10.2010 Cesena Cesena 0-1 HT 0-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cesena
3-5
AWAY Sampdoria
0.69 xG 2.08
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
390 Passes 340
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cesena vs Sampdoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sampdoria beat Cesena 5-3 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Cesena at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Cesena had 53% of the ball to Sampdoria's 47%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 0.69 to 2.08.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cesena and 1.00 for Sampdoria.

What was the final score of Cesena vs Sampdoria?

Cesena 3-5 Sampdoria in the Italy - Serie B on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cesena vs Sampdoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cesena win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Cesena 43%, draw 23%, Sampdoria 33%. The final score 3-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cesena) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cesena) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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