Carrarese 1-1 Mantova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.38
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
31%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.14
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.73
6+ Goals
10%
15.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.14 — our 28% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
3.5
1/2
8%
32.0
1/X
7%
12.3
X/1
10%
5.36
X/2
10%
6.07
X/X
12%
4.21
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
13%
4.18
2/X
7%
12.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
38%
+3.6pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.4pp
31%
Away Win
32%
-1.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.2pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carrarese EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Mantova EU Bookmakers 36%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -20%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -15%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
228 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
Crosses 18.0
Yellow Cards 1.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carrarese
1-1
AWAY Mantova
1.85 xG 1.22
35% Ball Possession 65%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
201 Passes 434
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Carrarese vs Mantova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carrarese and Mantova shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Carrarese at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Carrarese had 35% of the ball to Mantova's 65%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.85 to 1.22.

What was the final score of Carrarese vs Mantova?

Carrarese 1-1 Mantova in the Italy - Serie B on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carrarese vs Mantova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carrarese win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Carrarese 42%, draw 27%, Mantova 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Carrarese), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Carrarese) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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