Derby County vs Stevenage Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Derby County v Stevenage — Team-Based Signals
Derby County vs Stevenage Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
3-1
HT 2-1
Derby County
İN1
Derby County 1-0 Stevenage — Actual Match Statistics
Derby County edged past Stevenage 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Derby County as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Derby County had 58% of the ball to Stevenage's 42%, shots finished 5-4, expected goals 0.23 to 0.27.
What was the final score of Derby County vs Stevenage?
Derby County 1-0 Stevenage in the England - 1st Division on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Derby County vs Stevenage?
Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Derby County 43%, draw 28%, Stevenage 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derby County), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.