Derby County 1-0 Stevenage — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.62
Over 2.5
47%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.95
No
49%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.53
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
4.57
6+ Goals
10%
25.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.05
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
10%
14.1
X/1
15%
4.39
X/2
9%
6.36
X/X
10%
4.0
2/1
7%
29.0
2/2
14%
5.12
2/X
7%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-0.9pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.1pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+1.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
58%
-5.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
42%
+5.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.3pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Stevenage EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
1.26/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.11
-5% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
277 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 67%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
21.5 Crosses 19.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Stevenage
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.79 xG 1.83
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 3
298 Passes 132
69% Pass Accuracy 50%
26 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.10.2023 Stevenage Stevenage 3-1 HT 2-1 Derby County Derby County İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County
1-0
AWAY Stevenage
0.23 xG 0.27
58% Ball Possession 42%
5 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
289 Passes 183
69% Pass Accuracy 59%
16 Box Touches 9
18 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Derby County vs Stevenage
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County edged past Stevenage 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Derby County as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Derby County had 58% of the ball to Stevenage's 42%, shots finished 5-4, expected goals 0.23 to 0.27.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Stevenage?

Derby County 1-0 Stevenage in the England - 1st Division on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Stevenage?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Derby County 43%, draw 28%, Stevenage 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derby County), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Derby County) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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