Northampton Town 3-1 Bristol Rovers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
39%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.01
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.8
6+ Goals
9%
16.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 31% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.79
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
15%
5.43
X/2
15%
5.35
X/X
9%
4.32
2/1
6%
30.0
2/2
17%
3.7
2/X
7%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.2pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.7pp
39%
Away Win
36%
+2.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.1pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Northampton Town EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Bristol Rovers EU Bookmakers 40%
-2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
1.45/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.11
+7% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -19%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
243 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 68%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
17.6 Crosses 16.1
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Northampton Town
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Bristol Rovers
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.97 xG 1.60
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
209 Passes 214
59% Pass Accuracy 62%
18 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.10.2023 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 2-1 HT 2-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
19.03.2022 Northampton Town Northampton Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN2
13.11.2021 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 2-1 HT 0-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN2
10.04.2021 Northampton Town Northampton Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
03.10.2020 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 2-0 HT 0-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
08.01.2019 Northampton Town Northampton Town 1-2 HT 0-1 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İNTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Northampton Town
3-1
AWAY Bristol Rovers
0.60 xG 1.16
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
278 Passes 383
70% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 27
7 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Northampton Town vs Bristol Rovers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Northampton Town beat Bristol Rovers 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 23% / 39%) promised a tight game; Northampton Town found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Northampton Town had 44% of the ball to Bristol Rovers's 56%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 0.60 to 1.16 — on chances, Bristol Rovers could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bristol Rovers led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Northampton Town and 1.67 for Bristol Rovers.

What was the final score of Northampton Town vs Bristol Rovers?

Northampton Town 3-1 Bristol Rovers in the England - 1st Division on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Northampton Town vs Bristol Rovers?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bristol Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Northampton Town 38%, draw 23%, Bristol Rovers 39%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bristol Rovers) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN1 More England - 1st Division
17 Feb 2024
18:00 Peterborough United vs Blackpool Analysis →
18:00 Cheltenham Town vs Port Vale Analysis →
18:00 Derby County vs Stevenage Analysis →
18:00 Wycombe Wanderers vs Oxford United Analysis →
18:00 Lincoln City vs Exeter City Analysis →
18:00 Shrewsbury vs Wigan Athletic Analysis →