Mantova 3-1 Pro Patria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.47
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
19%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.64
Over 2.5
42%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.4
No
55%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.58
2-3 Goals
36%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
4.43
6+ Goals
8%
23.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
64%
-10.6pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.6pp
19%
Away Win
13%
+6.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
57%
+0.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
43%
-0.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
38%
+7.1pp
55%
BTTS No
62%
-7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mantova EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Pro Patria EU Bookmakers 16%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +37%
1.99/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.25
+17% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +50% / +37%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
450 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mantova
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Pro Patria
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
59% Ball Possession 41%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.10.2023 Pro Patria Pro Patria 0-0 HT 0-0 Mantova Mantova İTC
03.10.2023 Mantova Mantova 0-1 HT 0-0 Pro Patria Pro Patria İTCK
14.01.2023 Mantova Mantova 2-0 HT 1-0 Pro Patria Pro Patria İTC
13.09.2022 Pro Patria Pro Patria 3-0 HT 2-0 Mantova Mantova İTC
16.04.2022 Pro Patria Pro Patria 2-1 HT 1-0 Mantova Mantova İTC
11.12.2021 Mantova Mantova 0-0 HT 0-0 Pro Patria Pro Patria İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mantova
3-1
AWAY Pro Patria
80% Ball Possession 20%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mantova vs Pro Patria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mantova got the better of Pro Patria 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Mantova as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mantova had 80% of the ball to Pro Patria's 20%, shots finished 12-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pro Patria led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Mantova and 1.00 for Pro Patria.

What was the final score of Mantova vs Pro Patria?

Mantova 3-1 Pro Patria in the Italy - Serie C on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mantova vs Pro Patria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mantova win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Mantova 53%, draw 28%, Pro Patria 19%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mantova) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mantova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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