Fiorentina (K) 0-1 Roma (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italya - Women's Serie A, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
5.4
Draw
28%
4.49
Away
53%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.43
Over 2.5
44%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.7
No
54%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
14%
X/X
17%
2/1
3%
2/2
29%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
15%
+3.8pp
28%
Draw
19%
+9.1pp
53%
Away Win
66%
-12.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
38%
+18.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
62%
-18.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
55%
-9.2pp
54%
BTTS No
45%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorentina (K) EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma (K) EU Bookmakers 70%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 8
224 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorentina (K)
0-1
AWAY Roma (K)
0.45 xG 2.26
45% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 3
309 Passes 419
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
11 Box Touches 30
9 Crosses 13
POST-MATCH Fiorentina (K) vs Roma (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roma (K) nicked a narrow win over Fiorentina (K) 1-0 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Roma (K) as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Fiorentina (K) had 45% of the ball to Roma (K)'s 55%, shots finished 6-19, expected goals 0.45 to 2.26 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Roma (K)'s control.

What was the final score of Fiorentina (K) vs Roma (K)?

Fiorentina (K) 0-1 Roma (K) in the Italya - Women's Serie A on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fiorentina (K) vs Roma (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Roma (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina (K) 19%, draw 28%, Roma (K) 53%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roma (K)), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Roma (K)) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTKSA More Italya - Women's Serie A
17 Feb 2024
14:30 Sassuolo (K) vs Sampdoria (K) Analysis →