Sabah 3-2 Kapaz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 17 Feb 2024

Sabah
3-2 HT 1-1
Kapaz
📅17/02/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.72
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
28%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.74
Over 2.5
53%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.96
No
46%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
54%
-8.7pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.5pp
29%
Away Win
20%
+8.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
54%
-6.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
46%
+6.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
47%
+7.1pp
46%
BTTS No
53%
-7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sabah EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Kapaz EU Bookmakers 23%
-19% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
1.43/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/1.38
-12% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +0%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
445 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sabah
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Kapaz
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
72% Ball Possession 28%
15 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 2
18.12.2023 Kapaz Kapaz 3-4 HT 2-3 Sabah Sabah AZERK
03.12.2023 Kapaz Kapaz 0-2 HT 0-2 Sabah Sabah AZERS
24.09.2023 Sabah Sabah 2-2 HT 1-1 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
05.05.2023 Kapaz Kapaz 0-3 HT 0-2 Sabah Sabah AZERS
04.03.2023 Sabah Sabah 2-0 HT 1-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
14.12.2022 Kapaz Kapaz 2-2 HT 1-1 Sabah Sabah AZERS
POST-MATCH Sabah vs Kapaz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sabah nicked a narrow win over Kapaz 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sabah as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sabah had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Sabah and 1.17 for Kapaz.

What was the final score of Sabah vs Kapaz?

Sabah 3-2 Kapaz in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sabah vs Kapaz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sabah win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Sabah 46%, draw 26%, Kapaz 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sabah), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sabah) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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